Detail analýzy
| 06.02.2023 / Erste Group Research |
Základní informace
| Autor | Erste Group Research |
| Datum | 06.02.2023 |
| Jazyk |  |
| Název produktu | CEE Economies Special Report |
| Hlavní téma | Makro/Úrokové sazby, Směnné kurzy/FX |
| Zaostřeno na ekonomiku | Rumunsko |
| Zaměřeno na měnu | Rumunské leu |
| Zaměřeno na sektor | - |
| Stáhnout |
Romania Special | Inflation Forecast Update We revise down year-end inflation forecast amid declining soft commodity futures prices and lower energy prices. Inflationary pressures should ease after the first quarter, due to favourable energy-related statistical base effect. We see NBR holding key rate steady at 7.00% throughout 2023. Persistent and broad-based features of the current high inflation suggests that it should not decline quickly and hence upside risks to inflation trajectory remain. Lower inflation outlook is mostly priced into ROMGBs, in our view. At the same time, a significant deceleration in inflation should imply higher ‘two-way flexibility’ on FX. The NBR already signalled its discomfort with RON strengthening by loosening money market liquidity management. |
 Stáhnout PDF (696kB)
|