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2024/03/08 / Erste Group Research

Baseline remains broadly unchanged

The last quarter of 2023 brought a negative surprise in the form of lower than anticipated growth, especially due to stagnating household consumption. As we look ahead, the baseline scenario of a consumption-led recovery remains, while we refrain from being overly optimistic, since households might be more careful and start to rebuild their savings instead of spending. The uncertainty about the future path of inflation is slowly receding, as we keep getting more information about the planned actions of the government regarding the discontinuation of anti-inflationary measures.

There are few developments in the stance of the Monetary Policy Council of the NBP, as the members shift their attention from headline to core inflation. While we still see a possibility of a rate cut this year, the second-most probable scenario is rate stability. The exchange rate should keep steady, supported by inflows of the RRP funds and the hawkishness of the NBP, while yields should move down slowly, despite very large financing needs. Politically, Poland is moving closer to the EU, while the government struggles with established domestic institutions.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-