Research Detail
| 2023/12/13 / Erste Group Research |
Economy regained strength The Serbian economy regained strength in 3Q23, as real GDP growth accelerated to 3.6% y/y, compared with just 1.3% y/y growth in 1H23. Pick-up in activity prompted us to upgrade our FY23 forecast by 0.8pp to 2.4% y/y, while next year’s FY GDP forecast was cut by 0.2pp to 3.3% y/y as transmission of previous monetary hikes work their way through the economy alongside slower than expected recovery of external demand. Growth should accelerate towards 3.5% y/y in 2025. Inflation peaked in March, but disinflation continues to be a gradual process. Despite unfavorable macro situation in 1H23, marked by high inflation and low growth, fiscal trends were relatively solid prompting a small decrease in targeted budget gap. Focus now largely shifts to early parliamentary elections, scheduled for this Sunday, 17th December. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/12/13 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Serbia |
| Currency in focus | Serbian dinar |
| Sector in focus | - |
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