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2023/12/13 / Erste Group Research

Economy regained strength

The Serbian economy regained strength in 3Q23, as real GDP growth accelerated to 3.6% y/y, compared with just 1.3% y/y growth in 1H23.

Pick-up in activity prompted us to upgrade our FY23 forecast by 0.8pp to 2.4% y/y, while next year’s FY GDP forecast was cut by 0.2pp to 3.3% y/y as transmission of previous monetary hikes work their way through the economy alongside slower than expected recovery of external demand. Growth should accelerate towards 3.5% y/y in 2025.

Inflation peaked in March, but disinflation continues to be a gradual process. Despite unfavorable macro situation in 1H23, marked by high inflation and low growth, fiscal trends were relatively solid prompting a small decrease in targeted budget gap.

Focus now largely shifts to early parliamentary elections, scheduled for this Sunday, 17th December.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSerbia
Currency in focusSerbian dinar
Sector in focus-


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