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2023/03/14 / Erste Group Research

Growth to accelerate at the end of 2023

Due to contraction in Q4 2022, depleted household savings and low loan growth, recovery is expected to be slightly slower and will only accelerate towards the end of 2023. Unlocking disbursements of the RRF in 2023 would certainly be a welcomed boost for the economy; however, the likelihood of at least one payment this year is decreasing quickly as the months go on. We anticipate an overall GDP growth rate of 0.3% this year, with acceleration to 2.4% in 2024.

Inflation might decrease at a slower pace than previously expected, with annual consumer price increases in double digits until Q3 2023. According to the Central Bank, inflation target will be reached only in 2025, hence we do not expect any immediate rate cuts by the NPB. On the other hand, the will to cut the rates is present among the central bankers, as the Governor expressed hope to begin monetary easing in the final quarter of 2023. We expect Polish zloty to move sideways with a possibility for slight strengthening. Long-term yields are likely to be driven by global risk-on and risk-off modes and the monetary policy of major central banks. Towards the end of the year, Poland is expecting General elections and as of now, it is unclear who will take the reigns in the following years.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


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