|2023/03/13 / Erste Group Research|
EU funds will support the economy in 2023
Although 2022 was marked by numerous difficult events and economic challenges, the Slovak economy maintained solid growth throughout the year. Although economic activity was slowing down at the end of the year, the average growth reached 1.7% y/y in 2022. Surprisingly, the most prominent driver was household consumption, recording real growth despite the doubledigit inflation rate, thanks to savings. The first signs of a rebound were also seen in investment activity. On the other hand, foreign demand has been suffering and, combined with supply-chain problems, contributed negatively to export activity. In 2023, GDP growth could reach 1.5%.
Consumer price growth accelerated again, reaching 15.5% in February. Government intervention in household energy prices was more generous than expected, pushing the previous forecasts down. However, as the latest figures show, the inflationary pressures remain strong, especially induced by elevated operating costs. Therefore, the inflation rate could land at around 12% on average this year. High price growth also worries the ECB, which stepped up to monetary tightening - rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. This will have an impact on bond yields, which have the potential to rise slightly and thus make servicing the debt more expensive.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product name||CEE Country Macro Outlook|
|Topic in focus||FX, Macro/ Fixed income|
|Economy in focus||Slovakia|
|Currency in focus||Euro|
|Sector in focus||-|
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