Poland Weekly Focus | Unchanged sentiment at start of year
Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged in January. MinFin to announce bond supply for February. Zloty to remain under influence of global factors. Correction can be expected as markets digest hawkish Fed.
February 1 | Manufacturing PMI for January to remain unchanged. Flash January PMIs for Germany suggested an upturn in business activity, led by strong a stronger performance of the manufacturing sector as supply bottlenecks showed further tentative signs of easing. The flash German manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.4 in January from 52.1 in the previous month, surprising markets to the upside. According to January data, manufacturing order books expanded visibly, boding well for the performance of the sector in the coming months. As far as development in Poland is concerned, the market expects the January figure to remain unchanged at around 56.1.
Bond market drivers | 10Y yield back above 4%. Over the course of the week, the 10Y LCY yield moved within a range of 3.9-4.0%, while the short end of the curve increased back toward 3.4%. The sharp move at the start of last week was due to hawkish comments of Governor Glapinski that rates could go up above the level currently expected by the markets. At last week’s regular bond auction, the MinFin sold papers worth PLN 6.3bn and thus Poland has already covered around 51% of this year’s state budget borrowing needs. This week, the MinFin will announce the bond supply for February.
FX market drivers | Zloty back on weaker side of 4.55 vs. EUR. Increased global risk aversion, rising geopolitical risks as well as the hawkish turn of the Fed weighed on the zloty, which depreciated and returned to the weaker side of 4.55 vs. the EUR. This week, the markets will be in wait-and-see mode ahead of the approaching rate-setting meeting. It seems almost certain that the National Bank of Poland will raise the key rate once again by 50bp to 2.75%.