Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2024/09/16 / Erste Group Research

Croatia joining 'A' rating club


GDP remained in solid gear in 2Q24, adding 3.3% y/y and 0.8% q/q s.a. Domestic demand continued to push strongly, with private consumption adding 6.1% y/y and investments maintaining double-digit growth (12.9% y/y), while net exports remained a drag. Going forward, domestic demand is anticipated to maintain supportive momentum, reflecting strong labor market fundamentals on the consumption side and EU fund backing on the investment side. Exports should deliver a steady tourism footprint, but weak EU growth keeps weighing on a stronger goods export recovery. We maintain our FY24 call at 3.4%, with risks tilted modestly to the downside.

Inflation kept a moderating trend amid supportive supply-side factors. Demand-side pressure continues, fueling above-EU average inflation, with the average CPI in 2024 landing close to 3%. The budget gap is expected to slip to 2.5% of GDP in 2024, reflecting pre-election generosity. In anticipation of the 2025 budget, a stronger consolidation effort seems unlikely at present. S&P delivered a strong message with a rating upgrade to ‘A-‘ and even more so with the outlook remaining unchanged at positive. The latter signals an increasing likelihood of another upgrade in the 1-2 year horizon. Fitch and Moody’s are likely to act in a similar fashion.


PDF Download Download PDF (992kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2024/09/16
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-
Download



Decline
Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. Please read more information here

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer