Research Detail
| 2024/03/08 / Erste Group Research |
Baseline remains broadly unchanged The last quarter of 2023 brought a negative surprise in the form of lower than anticipated growth, especially due to stagnating household consumption. As we look ahead, the baseline scenario of a consumption-led recovery remains, while we refrain from being overly optimistic, since households might be more careful and start to rebuild their savings instead of spending. The uncertainty about the future path of inflation is slowly receding, as we keep getting more information about the planned actions of the government regarding the discontinuation of anti-inflationary measures. There are few developments in the stance of the Monetary Policy Council of the NBP, as the members shift their attention from headline to core inflation. While we still see a possibility of a rate cut this year, the second-most probable scenario is rate stability. The exchange rate should keep steady, supported by inflows of the RRP funds and the hawkishness of the NBP, while yields should move down slowly, despite very large financing needs. Politically, Poland is moving closer to the EU, while the government struggles with established domestic institutions. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2024/03/08 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Poland |
| Currency in focus | Polish Zloty |
| Sector in focus | - |
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