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2024/03/01 / Erste Group Research

Will ECB set new course?

An important meeting of the ECB Governing Council is coming up next week. Although a change in key interest rates can be virtually ruled out, the course could be set verbally in the direction of a first rate cut. The current key wording in the Governing Council's press release signals to the markets that key interest rates have probably peaked. We expect an amendment here and a text that prepares the markets for a foreseeable first rate cut.

This week, Statistik Austria published an estimate of Austrian GDP growth in 2023 and GDP components of 4Q23. According to this, the Austrian economy contracted by -0.8% y/y in 2023, which is in line with our expectations (-0.7% y/y). The decline in economic output amounted to -1.7% y/y in 4Q, whereby the development stagnated compared to the previous quarter (+0.0% q/q).

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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