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2024/02/02 / Erste Group Research

How will the economy develop in 2024?

Eurozone GDP stagnated in 4Q23, in line with market expectations. The Eurozone recorded growth of 0.5% over 2023 as a whole. Unfortunately, the outlook for 1Q 2024, based on initial leading indicators, remains weak.

According to preliminary figures, the US economy recorded strong growth in the fourth quarter. However, the pace of the US economy, particularly in the last two quarters, is unsustainable, as it is above potential.

According to the flash estimate, Austrian GDP declined by -1.3% y/y in 4Q23 and grew by +0.2% compared to 3Q. This is the first sign of stabilization after two significant q/q declines in 2Q23 and 3Q23. We expect the economy to continue this very moderate recovery in the coming months.

Following this week's meeting of the FOMC, the US Fed's rate setting body, we are moving our expectation for the first rate cut forward to May. In addition, we now expect five rate cuts of 25 basis points each and thus one more cut by the end of the year.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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