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2024/01/17 / Erste Group Research

Economy lacks growth impetus

We expect a slight recovery in economic momentum from the first half of 2024. On one hand, we are forecasting a slight recovery in industrial activity at a global level following the end of the reduction of excessively high inventories. On the other hand, consumption should gain some momentum, due to a gradual improvement in the real income situation (thanks to falling inflation rates). In addition, the prospect of the first slight interest rate cuts in the major currency areas should provide some additional economic optimism.

Based on the current level of inflation, we forecast a volatile sideways movement of inflation in the Eurozone in 2024. In our view, the energy component, which will make a positive contribution to inflation again in 2024 after considerable downward pressure in the second half of 2023, will cause volatility. In contrast, we expect the downward trend in food and core inflation to continue at least in the first half of 2024. For 2024, we forecast a decline in annual inflation to 2.7%.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameEconomic Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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