Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2022/09/13 / Erste Group Research

Uncertainty as common denominator


The economy expanded by 7.4% y/y in 1H22 and resilient domestic demand and strong tourism are paving the way to another strong year as far as GDP growth is concerned; we upgraded the 2022 call to 5.5%. As we progress towards 2023, the outlook is getting more blurred, as global factors weigh more on the growth prospects. Private consumption is facing inflation headwinds, while the deteriorating EU growth outlook and energy crisis hamper the export outlook. Tourism, after full normalization in 2022, is now facing a more moderate growth outlook, while the investment outlook remains solid amid ample EU fund flows. We keep our call for 2023 at 2.1%, with downside risks prevailing.

The inflation outlook continued to deteriorate, as headline CPI moved north of 12%, due mainly to supply shocks. The averages in 2022 and 2023 are now seen at 10.5% and 6.5%, respectively, anticipating a peak in the coming months and still recognizing upside risks. The government utilized its comfortable fiscal position and delivered an anti-inflation package aimed at anchoring inflation pressures, while not jeopardizing the fiscal position. Following a 2-notch upgrade from S&P and Moody’s and one additional one from Fitch, Croatia is now positioned deep within the IG region. As far as monetary policy goes, the focus gradually shifts towards the ECB amid looming euro adoption.


PDF Download Download PDF (89kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/09/13
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-
Download



Decline
Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. Please read more information here

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer