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2021/12/07 / Erste Group Research

GDP growth in 3Q among lowest in EU

The economy performed below expectations in 3Q21, up 1.3% y/y, one of the mildest growths among EU countries. A positive impetus came from domestic demand, while the contribution of net foreign demand remained negative, mainly due to lower exports triggered by the lack of inputs in industry. The summer season and improved pandemic situation supported economic activity in contact-intensive branches. However, the ongoing third wave of the pandemic, the persisting supply chain problems in industry and rising prices may threaten the economic recovery in the coming quarters.

Inflation should reach 3% on average in 2021 before accelerating to 5% in 2022, owing mainly to energy prices. The unemployment rate reached 6.8% in 3Q21 with an expectation of a gradual decline in the coming quarters, but slower than anticipated, due to the current macroeconomic development. The full-year average is expected at 7.0% in 2021 before declining to 6.4% in 2022. We expect the fiscal deficit to reach 6% this year, elevated because of the COVID-19 additional expenses; fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 2023.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSlovakia
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-


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