Look for:

Our offer for

Markets by Region

2022/09/13 / Erste Group Research
Serbia | Slowdown ahead

Slowdown ahead

Energy crisis in Europe intensified recently, following the indefinite shut down of Nordstream-1, confirming fears the upcoming energy bill will be higher than ever. GDP forecasts are being rapidly revised to the downside while inflation remains stubbornly high.

Due to solid economic performance in 1H22, we upgrade our FY22 GDP forecast by 1pp to 3.5% y/y while at the same time lower our expectations for next year by 0.7pp to 3% y/y with clear downside risks.

We expect the NBS to follow the ECB and Fed and forecast the key rate at 4.5% by year-end, with more hikes coming in 1Q23. The dinar continues to show unexpected resilience to global jitters, enabling the central bank to recoup some of the FX reserves spent early in the year. Meanwhile, the dinar yield curve remains under pressure, continuously burdened by poor liquidity and thus loosing general investors appeal.

On the political front, the new-old PM was recently confirmed albeit for a fixed two-year term, suggesting we might see some ‘though’ decision in the near-term.

PDF Download Download PDF (102kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product typemonthly/ quarterly
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Market cap-
AvailabilityAll [1]


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. Please read more information here


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer