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14.06.2024 / Erste Group Research

Spotlight on politics

The 1Q GDP data confirmed the sound economic outlook, as the economy expanded by 3.9% y/y and 1.0% q/q s.a.. Domestic demand remains the driving force, both in private consumption (+6.0% y/y) and the investment (10.8% y/y) segment, while net export support suffered. As for the outlook, we see domestic demand, especially private consumption, remaining in strong shape. External demand uncertainties faded amid a somewhat improving EU GDP outlook, thus adding some support. Accounting also for the recent 2023 GDP data revision and stronger carry-over effect, we fine-tune our GDP forecast for 2024 up by 0.3pp to 3.4%.

Recent CPI data showed the anticipated moderation (3.3% y/y in May), as supply-side factors remain in check, while demand side pressure favors average CPI in 2024 (3.0%) remaining above the EA average. The 2023 budget gap has been reported at 0.7% of GDP, while the accommodative fiscal stance is seen pushing the budget gap closer to 2.5% of GDP in 2024. Elections saw HDZ victorious, allowing for a third term in power, while the electorate shifted somewhat to the right. EU elections showed votes gravitating back towards big parties, with HDZ dominating and taking six MPs and SDP securing a reassuring four MPs, hence taking 10 of 12 MPS combined.

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Základní informace

AutorErste Group Research
Název produktuCEE Country Macro Outlook
Hlavní témaMakro/Úrokové sazby, Směnné kurzy/FX
Zaostřeno na ekonomikuChorvatsko
Zaměřeno na měnuChorvatská kuna
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