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13.06.2023 / Erste Group Research

2023 GDP growth in the region: starring investment and net exports.

We revise our 2023 GDP forecast to 1.3% (CEE8  average), driven by upward revision of growth in Croatia and Poland. Czechia and Hungary went through a mild recession in the second half of 2022 and in Hungary the q/q growth remained negative at the beginning of 2023 as well. These two countries had the GDP forecats revised marginally down. Further, the weak external demand pose a risk to the downside to the performance of small, open economies such as Czechia, Hungary or Slovakia.

As for the growth drivers, private consumption fell while investments kept growing, supported by EU fund flows. The flow of EU funds in 2023 is particularly strong as MMF14-20 comes to an end and RRF funds are distributed. Further, net exports contributed positively to GDP growth in 1Q23 evrywhere but Romania,compensating for weak domestic demand. Such development is the outcome of improving trade balances as terms of trade shock is reverting. At the top of that, weak domestic demand is likely to dampen growth of imports.

The inflation rate began to fall in the second quarter of 2023 and the dynamic decline is fueling expectations for monetary easing. By year-end, inflation should become single-digit in most countries. On average, however, the inflation rate is expected at 12% in 2023. The lowest, single-digit rates will be in Croatia and Slovenia, while the highest will be seen in Hungary.

Hungary began with normalization of interest rates by bringing down the one-day deposit rate to 17% and cut the top end of the interest rate corridor to 19.5%. The Czech central bank remains cautious about monetary easing athat we expect to begin in 4Q23. The Polish central bank sounds more and more dovish ahead of parliamentary elections and amid the decline of headline inflation. The probability of a rate cut in 4Q23 increased visibly. The CEE currenices have been strengthenieng since the beginning of the year with Hungarian forint gaining the most against the euro. The long-term yields have moved south and upcoming monetary easing will support further decline amid improving risk assesment.

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Základní informace

AutorErste Group Research
Název produktuCEE Country Macro Outlook
Hlavní témaMakro/Úrokové sazby, Směnné kurzy/FX
Zaostřeno na ekonomikuCEE
Zaměřeno na měnu-
Zaměřeno na sektor-

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