Research Detail
| 2023/12/19 / Erste Group Research |
2024 growth set to accelerate amid expected private consumption recovery Growth momentum decelerated going into second half of the year, with headline figure landing at 1.1% y/y in 3Q, supported by the strong investment activity and positive net exports contribution. Following milder FY23 performance, GDP growth is seen accelerating in the next year on the account of ongoing vivid investments dynamics and recovering private consumption. On the other hand, net exports contribution should diminish as anticipated external demand recovery couples with pick-up in the imports activity. Risks remain present and linked to external demand developments. The gradual deceleration trend on the inflation side continued, with CPI moving below 5% level. Going forward, we expect CPI to keep moderating as energy prices should continue to display deflationary tone. Following solid consolidation effort in 2022, this year’s budget deficit is set to increase, due to higher expenditure aimed for support after strong floods hit the country in August. Yields showed downward developments in the recent period, with the 10Y curve currently edging below 3% mark, while the spread vs. Germany remained steady around 90bp. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/12/19 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Slovenia |
| Currency in focus | Euro |
| Sector in focus | - |
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