Research Detail
| 2023/12/13 / Erste Group Research |
Recovery and strong zloty in 2024 After another interesting quarter, we can already see the first signs of a rebound in the Polish economy. The high-frequency indicators have been surprising to the upside, while 3Q GDP data showed annual growth for the first time this year. The anticipation for the next year is a rebound pushed by consumption, which could be pro-inflationary. Therefore, inflation will not be declining at such a fast pace as in previous months, and we see it stabilize at around 5% next year. However, only the new government’s next steps will bring more clarity, not only on the inflation path, but also on the NBP's decisions in 2024. As the NBP turned hawkish in autumn, the FX rate sharply appreciated, with no indications that this will be reversed soon. Moreover, the EUR 5bn in pre-financing from the RePowerEU chapter, paired with the normalization of relations with the EU, support the zloty even further. The financing needs are covered for this year, with approx. 20% of pre-financing to be done by the end of 2023. Next year, the need to borrow will be slightly higher than in this year, depending on the pace of fiscal consolidation. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/12/13 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Poland |
| Currency in focus | Polish Zloty |
| Sector in focus | - |
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