Research Detail
| 2023/06/26 / Erste Group Research |
Poland Outlook | Surprising growth figures, lowering inflation As Poland continues to grapple with the aftermath of the conflict in Ukraine, the reported first quarter GDP figures have pleasantly surprised with notable upside. Despite less favorable high-frequency and sentiment data, the q/q growth reached a robust 3.8% when adjusted for seasonality. Headline inflation is exhibiting a steady decline, bolstering the more dovish stance adopted by the National Bank of Poland. Furthermore, core inflation showed a visible decrease for the first time in May. As a result, there is a significant likelihood that the first interest rate cut will be implemented before the year concludes, contingent on forthcoming inflation readings. Simultaneously, the political landscape is intensifying in the lead-up to the November elections, prompting protests and eliciting criticism from the EU. Poland has missed out on a substantial financial stimulus from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, which may not become accessible until the following year. However, access to traditional EU Funds remains unaffected and will provide support for investments throughout 2023. The decline in imports, coupled with relatively stable exports thus far, has been the primary fuel behind the positive GDP figures witnessed in the first quarter, bolstered by investments. As a result, our projection for the Polish economy anticipates a growth rate of 1.45% in 2023. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/06/26 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Poland |
| Currency in focus | Polish Zloty |
| Sector in focus | - |
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