Research Detail
| 2023/06/20 / Erste Group Research |
Growth set to decelerate, albeit remaining solid in 2023-24 In line with expectations, GDP growth maintained a decelerated pace, although the headline figure showed a more resilient performance, as GDP posted 0.7% y/y growth, with private consumption revealing better than anticipated results and net exports delivering a positive contribution. The outlook suggests that domestic demand will remain in lower gear, although both private consumption and investments should remain steady, while net export is expected to play a broadly neutral role in the coming quarters. Bottom line, we expect the FY23 figure around 1.4%, with risks looking balanced. The gradual deceleration trend on the inflation side continued, with CPI currently moving in the higher single-digit area. We expect to see further unwinding, as energy prices continue to ease, suggesting average CPI at 7.2% in 2023. On the fiscal side, we saw a further consolidation effort, as the 2022 budget deficit landed at 3.0% of GDP, with public debt declining to below 70% of GDP. The 2023 deficit gap is projected at somewhat higher levels, amid the impact of energy related measures. Yields showed upward movements in 2Q23, with the 10Y curve at 3.45%, while the spread vs. Germany remained broadly stable around 100bp. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/06/20 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Slovenia |
| Currency in focus | Euro |
| Sector in focus | - |
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