Research Detail
| 2023/06/19 / Erste Group Research |
Subdued growth in 2023 We expect growth to remain subdued in 2023, risnig by an average 1.6% y/y. Moderation in growth reflects slowing private consumption as inflation continues to offset nominal wage growth. Despite slowing export performance, the overall contribution of net export to growth will be the key positive factor, as energy import pressures subside. Inflation peaked in March at 16.2% y/y but normalization since has been underwhelming with the latest figure in May remaining high at 14.9% y/y. Against market expectations, the NBS decided for another 25bp hike in June, lifting the key rate to 6.25%. Cautious statements from both the ECB and Fed confirm the battle against inflation is still not over. State officials have announced significant policy changes beyond the standard bduget procedure, hence making the recent fiscal strategy already outdated. The announced measures coupled with relatively weak growth suggest higher borrowing than planned. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/06/19 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Serbia |
| Currency in focus | Serbian dinar |
| Sector in focus | - |
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