Research Detail
| 2022/09/13 / Erste Group Research |
Slowdown ahead Energy crisis in Europe intensified recently, following the indefinite shut down of Nordstream-1, confirming fears the upcoming energy bill will be higher than ever. GDP forecasts are being rapidly revised to the downside while inflation remains stubbornly high. Due to solid economic performance in 1H22, we upgrade our FY22 GDP forecast by 1pp to 3.5% y/y while at the same time lower our expectations for next year by 0.7pp to 3% y/y with clear downside risks. We expect the NBS to follow the ECB and Fed and forecast the key rate at 4.5% by year-end, with more hikes coming in 1Q23. The dinar continues to show unexpected resilience to global jitters, enabling the central bank to recoup some of the FX reserves spent early in the year. Meanwhile, the dinar yield curve remains under pressure, continuously burdened by poor liquidity and thus loosing general investors appeal. On the political front, the new-old PM was recently confirmed albeit for a fixed two-year term, suggesting we might see some ‘though’ decision in the near-term. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2022/09/13 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Serbia |
| Currency in focus | Serbian dinar |
| Sector in focus | - |
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