Research Detail
| 2022/03/11 / Erste Group Research |
High level of uncertainty weighing on the outlook Going into the last quarter of 2021, GDP growth accelerated to a double-digit rate as the headline figure increased by 10.4% y/y, wrapping up a strong rebound in 2021 at 8.1%, thanks to the healthy foundation of both domestic and external demand performance. However, the outlook once again gets gloomier amid the invasion of Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions. We have revised our FY22 forecast down to 3.2% while underlining downside risks amid the uncertainty over the further development of the conflict and its spillover impact. Inflation spiked going into 2022, with the February figure reaching its highest print since July 2008 amid surging energy prices. Considering further supply pressures, we see average inflation hitting the 6.2% mark this year, still highlighting upside risks to the figure given the uncertainty regarding the duration of the pressures. The 2021 deficit is expected to be around the 7% of GDP mark, while the 2022 outlook suggests a further narrowing of the gap, albeit geopolitical factors imply certain risks. On the financing side, the MoF utilized favorable (pre-war) market momentum and tapped the bond market twice, thus already covering more than 60% of the financing needs for 2022. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2022/03/11 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Slovenia |
| Currency in focus | Euro |
| Sector in focus | - |
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