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06.06.2024 / Erste Group Research

Growth still appears under pressure

Burdened with slowing growth and weak demand in key trading partners, poor investment appetite and below average agricultural season, real GDP expanded just 1% y/y in 2023.

High-frequency indicators, except for retail, suggest meager output carried into the 1Q24. Overall, we have slashed our expectations for 2024 by 0.3pp, now forecasting average GDP growth of 2.3% y/y this year, before accelerating to 3.4% y/y in 2025 as the 8/10d highway project gains more traction and external demand recovers.

Inflation has come a long way since it peaked in late 2022 at almost 20% y/y. In 1Q24 it averaged 3.4% y/y, with food prices still the dominant driver especially after the expiration of temporary freezing of certain food items which started to feed into inflation as of March.

Both budget revenues and expenditures increased by roughly 14% y/y, resulting with a 16.5% y/y wider budget gap landing at 4.9% of the GDP. Budget gap should narrow by 0.5pp this year due to lower subsidization of electricity prices and stronger GDP growth.

VMRO DPMNE trounced the ruling Social Democrats in last month’s parliamentary and presidential elections. The outlines of the country’s new cabinet are already taking shape.

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Základní informace

AutorErste Group Research
Název produktuCEE Country Macro Outlook
Hlavní témaMakro/Úrokové sazby, Směnné kurzy/FX
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