Detail analýzy
| 13.12.2023 / Erste Group Research |
Economy regained strength The Serbian economy regained strength in 3Q23, as real GDP growth accelerated to 3.6% y/y, compared with just 1.3% y/y growth in 1H23. Pick-up in activity prompted us to upgrade our FY23 forecast by 0.8pp to 2.4% y/y, while next year’s FY GDP forecast was cut by 0.2pp to 3.3% y/y as transmission of previous monetary hikes work their way through the economy alongside slower than expected recovery of external demand. Growth should accelerate towards 3.5% y/y in 2025. Inflation peaked in March, but disinflation continues to be a gradual process. Despite unfavorable macro situation in 1H23, marked by high inflation and low growth, fiscal trends were relatively solid prompting a small decrease in targeted budget gap. Focus now largely shifts to early parliamentary elections, scheduled for this Sunday, 17th December. |
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Základní informace
| Autor | Erste Group Research |
| Datum | 13.12.2023 |
| Jazyk |  |
| Název produktu | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Hlavní téma | Makro/Úrokové sazby, Směnné kurzy/FX |
| Zaostřeno na ekonomiku | Srbsko |
| Zaměřeno na měnu | Srbský dinár |
| Zaměřeno na sektor | - |
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