Weekly Focus Poland
The full set of macro indicators for April will be released this week. We expect wage and employment growth to land around recently observed dynamics. Industrial production growth might surprise to the upside, as we see it at 4.0% y/y compared to the more positive market view of 9.0% y/y. Retail sales should benefit from the Easter effect and we expect growth of 6.5% y/y. We will provide our first now-cast of GDP growth in 2Q19. The zloty will most likely remain under global influence.
May 21: Wage growth and employment to remain stable. We see wage growth to increase by 6.2% y/y in April, while the market is a bit more positive and expects growth of 6.5% y/y. On the other hand, employment growth should remain stable at 3.0% y/y in April.
May 22: Industrial production to slow down. Unlike the market, which expects industrial production growth to visibly accelerate to 9.0% y/y in April, we see growth as slowing down to 4.0% y/y due to the base effect.
May 23: Easter effect to shift retail sales up in April. After sluggish performance of retail sales in March (growth of 3.1% y/y), we expect retail sales to increase by 6.5% y/y. The Easter effect and consumer confidence remaining high should be positive for the level of household spending.
Bond market: Polish 10Y yields increased to 2.9%. In the first half of the week, the long end of the curve was decreasing and 10Y yields went below 2.8%. After the GDP data and decision of the MPC to keep rates unchanged, 10Y yields started increasing. At the end of the week, the 10Y yield stood marginally below 2.9%. This week, the local macro release should be neutral for the bond market.
FX market: Zloty remains over 4.30 vs. EUR. Over the course of the week, the zloty remained above 4.30 vs. the EUR due to renewed global risk aversion. This week, the publication of Eurozone PMIs for May will be the most important macro factor for the development of the EURUSD.