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2017/12/13 / Erste Group Research

RS Macro Outlook, Serbia

2017 disappointed in terms of growth; in 2018 we expect gradual acceleration of economic activity

In the upcoming period we see GDP gradually picking up, with the growth trajectory mostly supported by rising domestic demand, while the net export performance could take on a more neutral role, as stronger domestic demand will put pressure on the imports side. However, we have revised our forecast from 2.1% y/y to 1.8% y/y in 2017, with expected acceleration to 2.9% y/y in 2018. As for monetary policy, we expect to see the key rate remain unchanged in 2018, as we see inflation moving steadily inside the target band. Fiscal policy is expected to take on a more expansionary tone, so we see the fiscal position moving from balanced budget towards deficit of somewhat below 1% of GDP. Despite better current fiscal figures, there is still much to do on the mid-term structural reform agenda (healthcare, pension system, labor market, SOEs, etc.).

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSerbia
Currency in focusSerbian dinar
Sector in focus-


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