Research Detail
| 2023/07/07 / Erste Group Research |
Producer prices continue to fall The Producer Price Index for May was published this week. As expected, the dynamics of producer prices (excluding energy) fell further to 3.4% y/y (previously 5.1% y/y). Price pressure is currently lowest for intermediate goods (-1.5% y/y), as competition is particularly high here, due to interchangeability. Since the development of producer prices allows conclusions to be drawn for the future dynamics of goods in core inflation, it is also relevant for our analyses. In our assessment, the current declining trend is due to the sustained easing of the situation in global supply chains. We therefore expect the declining momentum in producer prices to continue in the coming months. Consumer expectations also play a crucial role in the further inflation outlook. The ECB's latest survey of consumers' medium- and long-term inflation expectations shows that they are still well above the ECB's inflation target of 2% at 3.9% (12 months) and 2.5% (3 years), respectively. This means that, based on this factor, the risks for the inflation outlook in the Eurozone are currently on the upside. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/07/07 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | Week ahead |
| Topic in focus | Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Eurozone, United States |
| Currency in focus | Euro, US Dollar |
| Sector in focus | - |
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