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2023/06/02 / Erste Group Research

When will inflation fall?

Both the ECB and the US Fed have reduced the pace of interest rate hikes since the beginning of the year. This was only partly due to progress in the fight against inflation. Although the rate of inflation has fallen significantly, this was largely due to energy prices, which hardly react to interest rates. In contrast, there has been little (USA) or at best initial (EZ) progress in core inflation so far.

The environment speaks for easing inflationary pressure. However, things are not quite that simple. Inflation and, at least in the USA, the economy have been more robust than had been expected in an environment that has been difficult for some time.

Things are not quite that simple would have been a good headline for the special topic in which we look at the energy transition and its impact on electricity prices. Instead, the chapter is entitled Many goals are not yet a plan, which fits even better.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameInterest Rate Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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