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2021/03/26 / Erste Group Research

Inflation outlook Eurozone and US

For 2021 as a whole, we forecast a strong increase in Eurozone headline inflation to +1.5%, due to base effects in energy prices and special effects in Germany. However, as these two effects fade out, we expect headline inflation ito fall to +1.2% in 2022.

Although the US inflation rate will rise in the spring due to base effects, i.e. a drop in prices a year ago when the crisis broke out, this will be temporary. Similarly, supply bottlenecks could occur in individual sectors over the course of the year for a variety of reasons, leading to higher inflation. However, we do not expect a broad-based, significant, sustainable inflation increase for several reasons.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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