Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2021/03/09 / Erste Group Research

Vaccination and COVID-19 greatly shaping tourism and 2021 rebound


As expected, the economic drop lost some momentum in 4Q20, as it moderated to 7% y/y, wrapping up FY20 GDP at -8.4%. On the positive side, investments growth returned to the positive region, as did goods exports. Private consumption remained in the red, but negative pressures eased, while services exports were still facing a strong headwind from the tourism sector. Looking ahead, we stick with our 4.5% call, quoting elevated risks on both sides of the figure, mainly reflecting the uncertainty related to the pandemic/vaccination trajectory and consequently tourism rebound potential and external demand recovery. Domestic demand, namely EU funds-backed investments and private consumption normalization, should remain positive.

2021 should bring some inflation acceleration, but we see the average remaining in the comfortable region of slightly in excess of 1%. The monetary policy stance is seen as remaining unaltered, i.e. accommodative. The fiscal outlook remains dependent upon recovery dynamics and we still see some modest upside risks, albeit the consolidation effort from 2020 should allow for the public debt trajectory to reverse. Yields should remain driven by global factors, namely the reflation story that shaped YTD performance. The political arena turns to the local election in May, but the key items remain euro adoption and reaping the benefits of the generous NGEU allocation.


PDF Download Download PDF (88kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/03/09
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-
Download



Decline
Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer