Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2020/06/12 / Erste Group Research

Gradual recovery from 3Q20

GDP growth will arrive at -7% this year. However, from 3Q20 thereafter, we expect a gradual recovery of economic activity, as it will be supported by increasing domestic and foreign demand and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy expansion. In 2021, economic recovery should continue at a higher intensity, mainly due to improved foreign demand. A negative economic shock will affect the labor market this year, leading to rising unemployment and lower wage growth. However, unemployment should not rise so significantly, as the government has launched programs to mitigate adverse effects.

For the rest of this year, the CNB is likely to keep rates stable, due to gradually renewing domestic as well as foreign demand and high inflation, which should not slow down much. We expect the first hike in 3Q21, due to rising inflationary pressures after the crisis. The recent appreciation of the koruna was affected by improved sentiment in markets. In the coming quarters, the koruna should continue gradually strengthening.

PDF Download Download PDF (150kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCzech Republic
Currency in focusCzech Koruna
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer