Poland Weekly Focus | Complete set of 4Q19 data
Performance of economy for whole last quarter to be revealed this week. First comes data on labor market (employment and wage growth), then industry and retail sales should post solid growth. Bond and FX markets to remain under global influence (PMI, ECB meeting).
January 20 | Solid wage growth. Labor market conditions have been tight for a while already. We expect to see some acceleration of wage growth in December to 6.1% y/y (consensus at 6.2% y/y) after somewhat disappointing wage growth the previous month. Employment is expected to sustain 2.6% y/y growth. The underlying trends suggest, however, slowing growth dynamics of private consumption.
January 21 | Industry to accelerate. Industrial output growth is set to accelerate towards 6% y/y in December from meager 1.4% growth the previous month (calendar effects as well as improving PMI). Such development would put the average growth of industry in the last quarter marginally above average growth in the third quarter.
January 21 | Retail sales to go up. Nominal retail sales are expected to rebound to 7.8% y/y (vs. consensus at 7.6% y/y) in December, which would mean stabilization of quarterly growth slightly above 6% dynamics.
The long end of the Polish yield curve is more or less exactly where it was one week ago, at 2.33%. Throughout the week, 10Y yields dropped by 10bp, but rebounded on Friday.
The EURPLN touched 4.21 last week, but went only higher since then. At the beginning of this week, the EURPLN sits at 4.24, reflecting EURUSD development. The release of PMIs in the Eurozone as well as the ECB meeting should be of the main interest for the markets this week. We see the EURPLN going further up.