Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/11/26 / Erste Group Research

North Macedonia Outlook: Ongoing rebound of growth

We have upgraded our GDP forecast to 3.3% and 3.5% for this year and the next (from 2.9% and 3.3%), reflecting strong household consumption trend which will benefit further from announced additional public sector wage and pension lifts, robust private and public investments as well as more resilient exports than previously envisaged. Inflation undershoot expectations YTD (1% y/y in 9M19), with energy and transport prices acting as the key drag. In the near term, we expect a similar pattern, hence our downgrade of forecasts by 0.5pp for 2019 and 2020 to 0.9% and 1.4% respectively.

Disappointment following EU’s reluctance to give the country the formal date for the opening of negotiations resulted with yet another early parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 2020. On the positive side, prior to that, the country is widely expected to become a NATO member.

PDF Download Download PDF (571kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer