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2019/11/26 / Erste Group Research

North Macedonia Outlook: Ongoing rebound of growth


We have upgraded our GDP forecast to 3.3% and 3.5% for this year and the next (from 2.9% and 3.3%), reflecting strong household consumption trend which will benefit further from announced additional public sector wage and pension lifts, robust private and public investments as well as more resilient exports than previously envisaged. Inflation undershoot expectations YTD (1% y/y in 9M19), with energy and transport prices acting as the key drag. In the near term, we expect a similar pattern, hence our downgrade of forecasts by 0.5pp for 2019 and 2020 to 0.9% and 1.4% respectively.

Disappointment following EU’s reluctance to give the country the formal date for the opening of negotiations resulted with yet another early parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 2020. On the positive side, prior to that, the country is widely expected to become a NATO member.


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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/11/26
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-
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