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2019/10/29 / Erste Group Research

Lithuania Special | Stronger growth in 2019, but 2020 looks blue

Slowing external environment calls into question next year’s GDP growth. Lithuanian economy expected to slow down from 3.1% in 2019 to 2.4% in 2020. Inflation to remain under control despite soaring wages.

The Lithuanian economy sustained solid growth dynamics in 1H19, expanding on average by 4.0% y/y and surpassing market expectations. As a result, the European Commission revised its FY19 growth forecast up to 3.1%, from the 2.7% expected earlier this year.

However, the outlook for next year is gloomier, mostly due to weakening foreign demand, the unsolved Brexit issue and increasing protectionism. As Lithuania is a small and open economy with exports accounting for up to 80% of GDP, the country is heavily exposed to slowing economic activity in the EU, especially in Germany.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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