Poland | Weekly Focus
First real economy data for September is due this week. We expect wage growth to keep solid growth dynamics and arrive at 6.1% y/y, while employment should increase by 2.7% y/y. Industrial production will be worth watching, as we will see extent of slowdown in sector in 3Q19. We think that figure will return to positive territory, supported by favorable calendar effect (+1WD), and we see it at 5.3% y/y. Markets will likely focus on macro releases in Eurozone and US as well as Brexit developments.
October 18: industrial production to somewhat recover. After a very weak August reading (-1.3% y/y), we expect that industrial production will return to positive territory and arrive at 5.3% y/y in September. A positive calendar effect (+1WD) will be supportive for the reading. However, 3Q19 will show a visible slowdown of the industrial sector, as the average growth will most likely drop from 4.8% in 2Q19 to well below 4% in 3Q19.
Bond market drivers: 10Y yield returned to 2%. After a strong downward move a week before, last week, the long end of the Polish curve went visibly up and the 10Y yield increased by 10bp toward 2%. The local yield followed the core market development as the 10Y Bund went up by an impressive 15bp and closed the week above -0.5%. The increase of German Bund yields seemed to be associated with an easing of the risk-off mode, as 10Y US Treasury yields went up as well.
FX market drivers: Zloty holds strong. Over the course of the week, the zloty benefited from the stronger EUR and increased risk appetite. Since the beginning of the month, the zloty has appreciated by 1.6% vs. the EUR and the EURPLN closed the week below 4.30. This week, all eyes will be on international politics, with Brexit and trade talks in focus. As far as macro releases are concerned, Eurozone industrial production and retail sales for the US will be the most important releases for the EURUSD.