Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/10/14 / Erste Group Research

Poland | Weekly Focus


First real economy data for September is due this week. We expect wage growth to keep solid growth dynamics and arrive at 6.1% y/y, while employment should increase by 2.7% y/y. Industrial production will be worth watching, as we will see extent of slowdown in sector in 3Q19. We think that figure will return to positive territory, supported by favorable calendar effect (+1WD), and we see it at 5.3% y/y. Markets will likely focus on macro releases in Eurozone and US as well as Brexit developments.

October 18: industrial production to somewhat recover. After a very weak August reading (-1.3% y/y), we expect that industrial production will return to positive territory and arrive at 5.3% y/y in September. A positive calendar effect (+1WD) will be supportive for the reading. However, 3Q19 will show a visible slowdown of the industrial sector, as the average growth will most likely drop from 4.8% in 2Q19 to well below 4% in 3Q19.

Bond market drivers: 10Y yield returned to 2%. After a strong downward move a week before, last week, the long end of the Polish curve went visibly up and the 10Y yield increased by 10bp toward 2%. The local yield followed the core market development as the 10Y Bund went up by an impressive 15bp and closed the week above -0.5%. The increase of German Bund yields seemed to be associated with an easing of the risk-off mode, as 10Y US Treasury yields went up as well.

FX market drivers: Zloty holds strong. Over the course of the week, the zloty benefited from the stronger EUR and increased risk appetite. Since the beginning of the month, the zloty has appreciated by 1.6% vs. the EUR and the EURPLN closed the week below 4.30. This week, all eyes will be on international politics, with Brexit and trade talks in focus. As far as macro releases are concerned, Eurozone industrial production and retail sales for the US will be the most important releases for the EURUSD.

PDF Download Download PDF (427kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/10/14
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Update
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-
Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer