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2019/09/11 / Erste Group Research

Internal demand fuels the economy

We expect the economy to grow by 4.6% annually in 2019. Household demand and investments could be the main drivers, while the contribution of net exports to GDP growth might be negative. In 2020, economic growth could slow down to the range of 3-3.5% y/y. Annual average inflation might be 3.3% in both 2019 and 2020. After small tightening steps carried out in March and June, the normalization of loose monetary conditions has come to a halt.

The accommodative stance of monetary policy could persist and we do not expect any relevant changes in short-term rates on the forecasting horizon. Long-term bond yields might move in parallel with major bond yields. Gloomier global market sentiment and the loose stance of monetary policy led to a weakening of the forint exchange rate against the euro. No further relevant depreciation of the forint is expected, and the EURHUF might be traded in a higher range of 325-335 in the coming period.


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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/09/11
Languageen
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusHungary
Currency in focusHungarian Forint
Sector in focus-
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