Look for:

Our offer for

Research Detail

2019/01/15 / Erste Group Research

CEE Special Report: Challenges for CEE with new decade just


At the beginning of the new decade, CEE countries are likely to face a number
of challenges as far as economic growth and convergence are concerned.
Although the current EU funding programming period ensures the CEE region a solid
flow of EU funds until 2023, there will be fewer EU funds available under the latest
proposal of the 2021-27 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Until 2023, CEE
should lead in growth in Europe. After 2023, the amount of money allocated to the Common
Agricultural Policy and Regional and Cohesion Policy will be cut substantially,
according to recent budget proposals. Moreover, the high degree to which public
investment in the region depends on EU funds may thus raise questions on the ability
of CEE governments to finance and further develop infrastructure projects, for
example. Second, the negative demographic trend, in particular the shrinking workingage
population, is expected to weigh on CEE’s potential growth in the decades to
come. On a positive note, though, this trend does not necessarily have to negatively
affect the GDP per capita figures for the countries in the region. The labor market in
CEE has never been so tight and labor shortages have increasingly been seen as an
obstacle to growth. Thus, an increase of labor participation rates and support for the
region’s convergence closer to levels seen in Western Europe may substantially offset
the negative trend of the working-age population in CEE.


Another broadly debated
issue is the risk posed by automation, which certain recent studies suggest is
particularly high for CEE economies. Given this challenge, policies in the region
should continue to focus on promoting educational attainment and lifelong learning.
Finally, countries in the region should also properly address the challenges associated
with divergent regional and urban developments. These challenges, however, may become beneficial for CEE countries if they
lead to the implementation of necessary policy changes that might otherwise be
postponed.







PDF Download Download PDF (362kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2019/01/15
Languageen
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar
Sector in focus-
Download



Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Česká spořitelna/Erste Group/ or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites“) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions.

By agreeing to this hereto, the visitor entering this Websites confirms that has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer