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2019/01/09 / Erste Group Research

Economic Outlook | Global Growth under Pressure in 2019

In 2019 the simmering trade conflict is likely to particularly weigh on economic areas with trade surpluses (e.g. China and the Eurozone). From the perspective of emerging markets, elevated financial market volatility as well as expectations for a continued restrictive US monetary policy put additional pressure on the outlook for economic growth in 2019.

We are forecasting a decrease in Eurozone GDP-growth to +1.5% in 2019 based on weakening momentum in exports and investment spending. Due to the European elections scheduled for the end of May, political risk in the Eurozone will increase somewhat in 2019.

We are forecasting a stabilization of Eurozone headline inflation at around +1.7% in 2019.

While everything points to the US economy slowing down in 2019, it will be anything but weak.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameEconomic Outlook Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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