Weekly Focus Poland
We expect the flash CPI at 2.0% y/y in August. On Friday, the GDP structure will be published. Domestic demand will most likely remain the main growth driver, while investment should show further recovery. This week’s macro releases might have significant impact on the zloty and the yield curve.
August 31: We expect flash CPI at 2.0% y/y in August. We expect the flash CPI to remain stable compared to the previous month and arrive at 2.0% y/y in August. The recently observed lower dynamics of food prices should keep inflation stable in August. In the coming months, the CPI will mostly likely move towards the lower bound of the inflation target, given the base effects. Such development of price dynamics supports the dovish stance of the MPC. Moreover, the core CPI is holding stable at around 0.6%, supporting the view of limited inflationary pressure in the economy.
August 31: 2Q18 GDP structure should show further recovery of investments. We do not expect any major revision of the 2Q18 growth dynamics, which, according to the flash estimate, arrived at 5.1% y/y (0.9% q/q). The GDP structure should confirm that domestic demand was the main growth driver (up by 6.8% y/y in 1Q18), with private consumption sustaining solid growth of around 5% (up by 4.8% y/y in 1Q18) supported by the tight labor market. Although in 1Q18 gross capital formation increased by 21.0% y/y, the biggest contribution came from inventories, and therefore in 2Q18 we expect investments to show further recovery. Strong construction and industrial output data in 2Q18 support this view.
10Y yields went up by 0.9%. The long end of the curve showed some significant moves over the week.
The 10Y yield increased by 9bp WTD, given changes in global risk
appetite and local macro releases. At the beginning of last week, strong
industrial production data for July moved 10Y yields down to around
3.10%. However, later that week yields went up to above 3.18%. The
spread vs. 10Y German Bund was stable at around 280bp. This week the
long end of the yield curve will most likely be influenced by local macro
Zloty held strong and went below 4.30 vs. EUR. Over the course of the week, the Polish zloty and the Romanian leu were
the best-performing currencies in the region. The EURPLN went below
4.30 (the zloty gained 0.5% WTD), supported by the weaker USD.
Moreover, the local macro releases (industrial production and retail sales)
were zloty-positive. On Friday this week, the flash CPI and GDP structure
will be published and these will most likely influence the zloty.