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2024/06/13 / Erste Group Research

US interest rate path remains uncertain

As expected, the FOMC, the body of the US Fed that decides on monetary policy, decided to leave key interest rates unchanged. The new survey of the relevant participants in the FOMC meeting showed little changes in a number of areas compared to the March survey. The strongest changes were seen in interest rate expectations, albeit mainly for this year. The median corresponds to an interest rate cut of only 25 basis points (bp) in 2024, compared to 75bp in the March survey. However, the FOMC is only assuming a delay. This is because for 2025 and 2026, one interest rate cut more than in March is expected, meaning that the extent of interest rate cuts remains unchanged overall until the end of 2026.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameShort Notes Major Markets
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusUnited States
Currency in focusUS Dollar
Sector in focus-