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2022/01/10 / Erste Group Research

This week, two regional central banks will hold their rate setting meetings. Given inflation running way above the target and fiscal consolidation progressing at a slow pace, we expect the Romanian central bank to accelerate its hiking cycle and catch up with CEE peers by delivering a 50bp key rate hike to 2.25%. It may also widen its rate corridor to 100bp, lifting the credit facility rate to 3.25%. All in all, we see another 75bp of rate hikes this year, with the terminal rate for the cycle being reached at 3.00% by mid-2022. The risk balance to our call is clearly tilted to the upside. On the other hand, Thursday’s meeting of the Serbian central bank should leave its key rate untouched at 1.0% as it focuses more on the repo rate for now.

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameVideo
Topic in focusEquities, FX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-


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