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2021/11/19 / Erste Group Research

Are rising covid infections weighing on sentiment?

Next week, a flash estimate of PMI data in the Eurozone, Germany and France in November will be published. We expect a further slight deterioration in sentiment in November. In Germany in particular, the recent sharp rise in Covid-19 infections could have an additional negative impact on services sentiment.

The Austrian government today announced a nationwide lockdown beginning Monday, November 22. The situation will be reassessed in 10 days and the measure can be extended for another 10 days if needed. Based on the current information, the lockdown for vaccinated and recovered individuals is expected to be lifted on December 13 at the latest.

The lockdown will undoubtedly have a negative impact on economic growth, especially on private consumption and tourism. In our current economic forecasts (2021: 4.4%, 2022: 4.6%), we have already taken into account a very limited winter tourism season and somewhat lower private consumption in the final months of the year.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/11/19
Languageen
Product nameWeek ahead
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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