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2024/07/04 / Ceska Sporitelna Research

Ranní restart
Ceny průmyslových výrobců v eurozóně poklesly v květnu o 0,2 % meziměsíčně. Meziročně byly nižší o 4,2 %. Vliv na tom měly především klesající ceny ropy, nicméně ani v dalších sektorech v tuto chvíli nezesilují inflační tlaky. To je odrazem utlumeného makro vývoje. I proto může být ECB celkem v klidu a pokračovat ve snižování sazeb.

Soukromý sektor vytvořil v červnu 150 tisíc nových pracovních míst. Data jsou jen mírně pod očekáváním. Tento vývoj vnímáme jako inflačně zhruba neutrální a nekonzistentní se stále výrazně vysokými sazbami FEDu. Jak jsme psali již v minulých Restartech, pro americkou ekonomiku v příštím roce vidíme zvyšující se riziko útlumu makro vývoje, protože FED stále drží sazby až příliš vysoko.

Zklamání přinesla včerejší data indikátoru ISM ve službách, který skočil na úrovni 48,8 bodů. To je nejnižší hodnota od dubna 2020. Jde zatím o jedno takto špatné číslo, respektive o druhé po dubnu, ale tam to mohlo být ovlivněno nejistotou a rozkolísaností dat. Každopádně, pokud by se tento vývoj potvrdil a sektor služeb se ochladil, americká ekonomika by mohla zpomalit ještě výrazněji a dříve, než se nyní čeká.

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General information

AuthorCeska Sporitelna Research
Date2024/07/04
Languagecs
Product nameRanní Restart
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCzech Republic
Currency in focusCzech Koruna
Sector in focus-
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