2023/03/09 / Erste Group Research |
Economic development to strengthen next year In quarterly terms, GDP fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, and we also expect a further decline in the first quarter of this year. Thus, the Czech economy is going through a mild recession, which is, however, significantly shallower than the original estimates. The main reason for the generally subdued GDP development is household consumption, which is affected by strong inflation and negative sentiment. Although the development of the labor market has worsened, mainly due to the drop in real wages, unemployment remains below 3% without significant signs of a future increase. Economic development could start to improve in the second half of the year and strengthen next year, mainly due to a recovery in foreign trade and investments. Inflation will gradually weaken from February, when, in addition to the base effect, it will be driven by subdued household consumption, a drop in energy prices and a strong koruna. With inflation expected to be close to the target even in 1H24, the CNB could start cutting rates in 3Q23. The koruna remains strong when it is primarily influenced by market sentiment. However, we expect a slight weakening of it in the coming months. |
![]() |
Author | Erste Group Research |
Date | 2023/03/09 |
Language | ![]() |
Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
Economy in focus | Czech Republic |
Currency in focus | Czech Koruna |
Sector in focus | - |
Download |
Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).
The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.
Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended), citizen/resident of Australia, Canada, Great Britain and Japan. For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States, Australia, Canada, Great Britain and Japan or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited.
The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.
The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.
By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.
(iV) It is no consumer.