Research Detail
| 2021/12/08 / Erste Group Research |
The economic development will improve over the next two years The development of the Czech economy will improve significantly over the next two years, when, in addition to strong household consumption affected by the low unemployment rate, the development of foreign trade will be improving. However, this will happen gradually, in our view, as problems with missing components in the automotive sector are likely to persist for the next several quarters. Inflation will peak at the beginning of next year at more than 7%, but will be gradually slowing down from 2Q22 thereafter, especially during the second half of next year. Given the pro-inflation environment, the CNB is likely to continue raising rates, as we expect the peak to be at 3.50% in 1Q22. From 2H22, the CNB could be gradually cutting rates, mainly due to a weakening of inflationary pressures. The strengthening of the koruna, which will be affected by improved market sentiment and a high interest rate differential, will also contribute to this. However, the pace of koruna appreciation will be dampened by its overboughtness and higher rates in the US. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2021/12/08 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Czech Republic |
| Currency in focus | Czech Koruna |
| Sector in focus | - |
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