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2018/03/14 / Erste Group Research

RS Macro Outlook, Serbia

After dissapointing 2017, we expect stronger developments in 2018

In 2018 we see GDP gradually picking up, with the growth trajectory mostly supported by rising domestic demand, while net export performance could take on a more neutral role, as stronger domestic demand will put pressure on the imports side. Our FY18 forecast is currently at 2.9% y/y. As for monetary policy, we expect to see the key rate remain unchanged in the rest of 2018, as in our view weaker inflation numbers reflect the effects of the high base effect and not weak demand-side pressures. Fiscal policy is expected to take on a more expansionary tone. Despite the better current fiscal figures, there is still much to do on the mid-term structural reform agenda.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusSerbia
Currency in focusSerbian dinar
Sector in focus-


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