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2018/03/14 / Erste Group Research

HR Macro Outlook, Croatia

GDP outlook more uncertain, fiscus outperformed, reforms underperformed

4Q17 GDP somewhat disappointed, landing at 2.0% y/y and wrapping up the FY17 figure at 2.8%. Private consumption and exports expectedly remained supportive, while investments showed deceleration, and accelerating imports weighed on the net exports contribution.

We keep our call for 2018 at 2.8%, acknowledging increasing risks to the forecast, but opting for wait-and-see mode until we get some flavor from the 1Q18 figures. Structure-wise, the domestic demand outlook looks solid – likely a bit more subtle private consumption support, and somewhat stronger investments profile.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-


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