Weekly Focus Poland
Industrial output growth (2.7% y/y) and retail sales (6.0% y/y) arrived below expectations, although 4Q18 GDP should land close to 5% y/y. Global events such as Eurozone market sentiment and ECB meeting to be in focus this week. Local development should thus have limited impact on FX and bond market.
January 24: Unemployment rate expected to remain at 6.5% in December The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.5% in December, at historically low levels reflecting tight labor market conditions. The unemployment rate should average 7.3% for 2017. The downward trend is expected to continue this year.
Spread vs. Bunds stabilized around 275bp Over the last week, 10Y German yields continued to rise, driven by expectations of a change in ECB guidance. The long end of the Polish curve also went up. At the same time, the curve has steepened. This week, global events, in particular data on market sentiment in the Eurozone and the ECB meeting will the focus of investors. If the ECB softens its tone vs. December’s minutes, then yields may go down.
Zloty holds strong Over the last week, the FX market was quite stable and the zloty was holding in a tight range around 4.17 vs. the EUR. While the ECB minutes affected the bond market, FX remained mostly unaffected. This week, the changes on the EURUSD pair are likely to be crucial for zloty performance if the pair reacts to the ECB meeting outcome.