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2022/07/25 / Erste Group Research

Tuesday’s Hungarian central bank meeting will be in special focus. Given the bigger-than-expected hike of the ECB, anticipated further tightening of the US Fed, as well as domestic factors – notably the vulnerability of the forint and considerable rate hiking expectations by market pricing – the MNB could increase its rates by at least 100bp. The key rate would thus reach 10.75% (or more if a larger hike occurs).
Czechia will release its flash estimate of GDP growth in 2Q22. Impact of the war in Ukraine together with lower consumer demand stand behind the anticipated adverse development. Uncertainty is high though, mainly due to the development of inventories. We thus expect the Czech economy to have contracted by 1.3% q/q (still growing by 2.1% in y/y terms). Moreover, Poland and Slovenia will release their flash inflation prints for July - these are expected to have inched up.

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameVideo
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCEE, Czech Republic, Hungary
Currency in focusCzech Koruna, Hungarian Forint
Sector in focus-


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